2010 South Africa is the ninth FIFA World Cup to include the United States, and the sixth appearance in a row for the Americans. While that in itself is an impressive feat, especially for a country that lacked a major professional league for most of the 20th century, what is more impressive is the results of teams that have beaten the US in the World Cup. Eight out of nine times, a team that beats or draws the US advances to the semifinals of the tournament in question.
Of all the tournaments involving the US, only 1998 France and the first ever world cup, 1930 Uruguay, are anomalies. At 1998 France, the US did not win a match. The two teams that did advance, Germany (quarterfinals) and Yugoslavia (round of 16), failed to reach the semifinals, but both teams were knocked out by semifinalists. At the 1930 Uruguay tournament, the US were themselves semifinalists.
Four times a team that played the US and earned at least a point ended up in the tournament final, winning three times. In 1994, Brazil knocked the US out in the round of 16 and went on to beat Italy on penalty kicks in the final. In 2006, the most recent completed tournament, the US earned its only point against Italy. Italy went on to win the tournament, also on penalty kicks. Italy also knocked the US out of the 1934 Italy edition, beating the Americans 7-1 in the knockout-stage-only tournament.
The most interesting tournament involving the US’ opponents was 2002 Korea/Japan. It is the only tournament in which two teams that have earned at least a point against the US have played each other. Hosts South Korea earned their place in the semifinals after drawing 1-1 against the US in the group stage. Germany defeated the US 1-0 in a game shrouded in controversy that rivals only the US’ 2010 game against Slovenia. They met in the semifinals, with Germany moving on to the final with a 1-0 victory.
While this unique history means little to the actual results of the 2010 tournament, it is interesting to note. If FIFA Confederations Cup results are taken into account, the results play out as well, including the 2009 edition that including the US in the final. What this means for 2010, if you’re inclined to believe history, is that either England or Slovenia will end up in the semifinals of the 2010 World Cup. Should Algeria somehow manage to beat the US (they cannot advance with just a draw), add them to the list. Whether you believe it or not, based on the history, the US is a team to beat in the World Cup.
Adam Soucie is the author of Soccer, Not Football, a blog focused on the American game. If you’ve liked this piece, check out his other work. If you haven’t liked it, he promises there’s better stuff on his site.